PAKISTAN READER

Photo : Dawn

Shehbaz Sharif chosen as a ‘reluctant’ consensus candidate for prime minister, as Nawaz Sharif says

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #67
Shehbaz Sharif chosen as a ‘reluctant’ consensus candidate for prime minister, as Nawaz Sharif says no
On 13 February, the ‘coalition of the willing’ announced that they intend to form a government in the Centre and provinces, with Shehbaz Sharif as the ‘reluctant’ consensus candidate for the post of the prime minister. Shehbaz received pledges of allegiance from frontline political leaders of six of the country's main parties. Although he kept repeating that he would ask his brother, Nawaz Sharif, to take up the post, Shehbaz received his brother’s blessing to move forward. Maryam Nawaz was nominated as the coalition’s candidate for the position of Punjab’s chief minister. It appeared as though the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) had come together following their split prior to the election. The PTI labelled the leaders of the coalition as “mandate thieves,” though Asif Ali Zardari clarified: “It is not that we want that PTI does not enter reconciliation. It should, and every other political force should come and talk to us.” (Syed Irfan Raza, “Shehbaz prevails in race for PM House,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
PTI to hold talks with political parties except for PPP, PML-N and MQM-P
On 13 February, Imran Khan stated that the PTI would be willing to hold talks with other political parties except the PPP, PML-N, and MQM-P, to form a coalition in the center. This statement was made following his opponents’ decision to form a coalition with the assistance of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). Khan said that PTI’s information secretary was directed to initiate talks with the other political parties, as the PTI’s priority was to challenge the election results in the Supreme Court. He claimed that the solution to Pakistan’s rigged politics, which are likely to stir uncertainty in the economy, can be tackled only by transparent elections. (Malik Asad, “Imran says open to talks, except with PPP or ‘N’,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)

UN secretary general calls for post-election situation to be resolved through “legal frameworks”
On 12 February, the spokesperson for the Secretary General of the UN Antonio Guterres, Stephane Dujarric, said at a briefing in the UN headquarters that Guterres wanted Pakistani leaders to solve the post-election uncertainty in a non-violent manner. Dujarric stated that Guterres wanted to urge “the authorities and political leaders (in Pakistan) to maintain a calm atmosphere and to reject and refrain from all forms of violence and avoid any actions that could increase or enflame tensions.” This statement was made in light of the fact that no political party was able to secure a clear majority, amid allegations of poll fraud. Dujarric added that Guterres emphasized using and respecting the “established legal frameworks and for human rights and the rule of law” when resolving the issues. Earlier, Guterres expressed concern regarding violence surrounding the election targeting political parties and the suspension of mobile services. (Anwar Iqbal, “UN chief wants legal means to tackle poll dispute,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
ECP announces victories for Sharif family and other members for National Assembly
On 13 February, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) disclosed some National Assmebly seat results, which included PML-N supreme leader Nawaz Sharif and three of his family members. According to the results, Sharif was declared a returned candidate from NA-130 (Lahore), his younger brother Shehbaz Sharif from NA-123 (Lahore), daughter Maryam Nawaz from NA-119 (Lahore) and nephew Hamza Shehbaz Sharif from NA-118 (Lahore). Under Section 98 of the Elections Act 2017, once the results have been given by the returning officer, the ECP has 14 days from the polling day to publish the name of the winning candidate in the official gazette. The law also mentions “every returned candidate shall, within ten days from the poll of an election, submit a return of election expenses under section 134 and the Commission shall not notify in the official Gazette the result of a returned candidate who fails to submit his return of election expenses.” The ECP further disclosed the winners of provincial assembly seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. (Iftikhar A. Khan, “ECP notifies victories of Sharif family, other party members,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
JUI-F leader to support protests against rigging
On 13 February, addressing a press conference at Larkana, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) district emir Maulana Nasir Mehmood alleged of rigging committed in the election process in Sindh, where the process was carried out under a strategic plan. Mehmood said that even though the JUI-F had been offered eight seats, the party kept its “word with the GDA” and “stood by the commitment.” He expressed support for GDA’s call for protest on 16 February in Hyderabad, against the alleged rigging of polls. Mehmood additionally condemned the violence in the region which resulted in the death of three persons, demanding a judicial inquiry. (“JUI-F refused offer of eight seats, reveals Larkana leader,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
Sindh High Court orders ECP to address petitioners’ complaints by 22 February
On 13 February, roughly 50 petitions challenging the provisional results of elections on National Assembly and provincial assembly seats were disposed of by the Sindh High Court (SHC), which then directed the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to use speaking orders and decide the petitioners’ complaints by 22 February. On the matter of consolidating results, the ECP was ordered to resolve discrepancies in Form-45 and Form-47 after verifying records with the ECP or given by the petitioners. The two-judge bench of the SHC had partially heard cases of maintaining 45 petitions, majorly filed by PTI-backed independents against the provisional results of 16 NA and 20 PA seats. It was noted by the bench that: “In case of any further grievance, the aggrieved parties will be at liberty to seek their remedy as available to them under the Elections Act, 2017 by approaching the relevant forum, including tribunal, etc. constituted for such purposes in accordance with law.” The PTI contested the victory of 15 MQM-P leaders and three PPP leaders, asking the SHC to declare Form-47 void. JI and PPP members also filed petitions, challenging the provisional results. (Ishaq Tanoli, “ECP gets eight days to decide complaints against poll results,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
In Balochistan, poll rigging allegations leads to complete shutdown
On 13 February, in many parts of Balochistan, including the provincial capital Quetta, there was a full shutdown strike with sit-ins and roadblocks, due to allegations of rigging in the general elections. The alliance of the National Party, Hazara Democratic Party (HDP), BNP-Mengal, and PkMAP appealed for all stores, marketplaces, companies, and shopping centers to remain closed for the entire day. Hotels and pharmacies were permitted to stay open. The supporters of the parties, many of whom were women, staged the sit-in in front of the deputy commissioner's office in Quetta, who was also the district returning officer. To protest against the alleged change in result of the NA-251 seat, the chairman of the Pashtoonkhwa National Awami Party, Khushal Khan Kakar, called for an indefinite shutdown of all national highways from 14 February. This was the fifth consecutive day that Balochistan remained cut off from other provinces. The blocking of highways prevented the restoration of trade with Afghanistan and Iran. (Saleem Shahid, “Protest spread in Balochistan over ‘rigging’,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
PTI to form a coalition with MWM in Centre and Punjab, and JI in KP
On 13 February, the PTI Central Information Secretary, Raoof Hasan, claimed that in accordance with instructions given by Imran Khan PTI, the PTI had decided to form a coalition in the Centre and Punjab with the Majlis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen (MWM). Hasan said: “We are going towards the formation of a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We are also going to double our efforts for a government in the Centre and we will also look at what to do about the Punjab government.” Hasan added that Khan had approved Ali Amin Gandapur to make the government in KP. Khan had reportedly given Hasan the “mandate” to “birth a coalition partnership” with political parties except the PML-N, MQM-P, and PPP. (“PTI to ally with Majlis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen in Punjab and Centre, with Jamaat-i-Islami in KP,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
2024 elections as the “most consequential” in recent history, says a Dawn editorial
On 14 February, an editorial in Dawn by Zahid Hussain titled “Polls and their aftermath” described the 2024 elections as the “most consequential election in Pakistan’s recent history.” Voters defied all odds by turning out in “record numbers” and making their opinion known, thus “breaking down the walls of fear and hoping to bring change.” However, it appeared that the “people’s mandate seems to have been stolen yet again.” Hussain acknowledged the “massive turnout” of the youth and female voters, and said that given the “anti-establishment sentiment,” the votes were against “political repression.” He questioned how, despite the PTI candidates leading in major constituencies, the PML-N “heavyweights” who were falling behind PTI-backed independents at night were declared winners the next day in all provinces except KP. Taking the example of the 2018 elections, Hasan explained that the final tally depends on “who is the favourite of the security establishment at the time.” The editorial mentions international responses from the US, the UK, and the European Union, who individually expressed concern and asked for a probe into the irregularities. The UN secretary general’s “damning statement” wherein he called on Pakistani authorities to legally resolve issues was also cited in the editorial. Hassan asserted that given the “unprecedented” nature of a situation in which a UN official is commenting on a country’s internal matter, the international community’s response cannot be “brushed aside,” as it raises questions of Pakistan’s democracy and the alleged involvement of the security establishment in elections. The editorial goes on to say that since PTI is not recognized as a parliamentary party, despite its affiliated independents emerging as the “single largest group” in the next National Assembly, the party will not get reserved seats to form a simple majority in the centre. It also mentions the “new power play” that has unfolded, with Nawaz Sharif declaring victory despite setback in Punjab and his own “humiliating defeat” in a KP constituency. Sharif’s speech was described as not going “beyond rhetoric,” while the army chief’s call to political parties to form a “unified government” was deemed as insightful with regard to the “emerging civil-military relationship.” Hassan has said that the potential coalition between the PML-N and the PPP would not make way for a “stable coalition administration,” as the PPP is likely to be a “minority government led by the PML-N.” The editorial concludes by arguing that Pakistan needs a “healing touch” that can only be provided by “restoring the democratic rights of the people.”  (Zahid Hussain, “Polls and their aftermath,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn criticizes “jarring” and “irresponsible” stance of caretaker PM on election controversy
On 14 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Hard to ‘move on’” described the remarks by caretaker Prime Minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, who said that since Pakistan had “accepted” the election results the country should “move on,” as an “overly optimistic take.” Citing the petitions being filed against the results that have brought political rivals together with the aim of challenging the results, the editorial contended that “very few” are interested in moving on from the “terribly messy situation.” Kakar’s “dismissal of concerns” with regard to election tampering by claiming that the sentiment was such only because of a suspension in mobile services and a delay in declaring the results, was criticized by the editorial as being “fallacious framing of a highly serious matter.” It is not appropriate for Kakar to be “defending” the ECP’s “poor management” of elections, or to be “summarily dismissing” concerns over rigged elections. Further, it is “irresponsible” for him to link the failure of the political parties to “enact effective legislation” with the controversy surrounding the polls. The editorial pointed out that this was especially “strange” since Kakar himself was “having trouble deciding what ‘free and fair’ means,” and had told a foreign interviewer on 7 February that since the phrase is “very subjective,” he “could not guarantee” free and fair polls. It is “jarring” that a person who had been tasked with only conducting polls made this statement. The editorial concluded by asserting that people would not be “gas-lit into accepting less than what they deserve,” and only the ECP (not the media) was to blame for the “growing controversy over rigging.” (“Hard to ‘move on’,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)

Smaller parties hold crucial role in Pakistan's post-election coalition talks
On 14 February, The Express Tribune reported that in the aftermath of Pakistan's February 8 general elections, major political parties like PML-N and PPP are vying for coalition partnerships to form the next government. However, with no single party securing a clear majority, smaller parties such as MQM-P, JUI, and PML-Q have become key players in the negotiation process. Of the 336 seats in the National Assembly, 60 are reserved from women and ten for religious minorities, which are distributed proportionately based on each party’s performance. For a party to have its leader as the prime minister, it will need 169 votes; with the current results, no party will have 169 seats without support from smaller groups. Thus, the PML-N is trying to win over the MQM-P, which has 17 seats. The JUI and PML-Q have four and three seats respectively, and will be important for the formation of governments in Balochistan and Punjab. In Sindh and KP, the PPP and PTI-backed independents can form the provincial government. From 2013 to 2018, the PTI had formed a coalition with the JI, which has won two seats in KP in the 2024 elections. Independents are playing a major role, as they could join a party favoured by Imran Khan or support his opponents. (“Smaller parties take centre stage as nation waits for next government,” The Express Tribune, 13 February 2024)
 
PTI spokesperson condemns PPP’s “disgusting plans” to support PML-N
On 13 February, a spokesperson for PTI released a statement, in which it strongly criticized the PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s decision to support the PML-N’s prime ministerial candidate while not participating in the government at the Centre. The spokesperson asserted: “If Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari's thinking were truly democratic, he would have recognized the available public mandate to PTI instead of siding with the pirates of Jati Umrah, the Sharif family.” Zardari was accused of trying to retain his “his family and hereditary politics” through “blatant corruption and power-sharing on Zardari's cues,” with the spokesperson adding that the PPP’s decision had again led to the secession of Pakistan’s eastern wing. While promising to eliminate Zardari’s “disgusting plans,” the statement described the PPP and PML-N as “beneficiaries” of “sacrifices” made by Imran Khan for Pakistan. (“PTI reacts strongly to PPP's decision to support PML-N's PM candidate,” The Express Tribune, 13 February 2024)
 
JUDICIARY
SC deems Jaranwala inquiry report as unsatisfactory, criticizes Punjab police
On 13 February, the Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan dismissed the Punjab government’s report on the Jaranwala incident, claiming that the province’s police knew the names of those involved in the incident but were afraid to name them. The three-member bench, led by CJP Qazi Faez Isa, asked authorities to submit a new report within ten days, adding that an unsatisfactory report would lead to the court dismissing or suspending the relevant officials. On 16 August 2023, communal violence at Jaranwala, Faisalabad, led to dozens of churches and properties of the Christian community being attacked. The petitioners noted: “At least 24 churches and several dozen smaller chapels were burnt, thus, the present petition is of great public importance and is maintainable.” During the proceedings, Isa lamented that the police failed to stop the mob and “undermined public confidence in themselves.” He also questioned whether Pakistan wanted to “emulate the treatment meted out to minorities in India,” saying that “Islam prohibits attacks on places of worship.” The court called on the federal and provincial governments, Pakistan Broadcasters Association (PBA) and the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority, to play their role in combating extremism and promoting harmony. (Jahanzeb Abbasi, “SC throws out Jaranwala inquiry report,” The Express Tribune, 14 February 2024)
 
Caretaker PM summoned to IHC over missing Baloch students
On 13 February, the Islamabad High Court (IHC) issued summons for caretaker Prime Minister, Anwaarul Huq Kakar, to appear in court on 19 February, with regard to the failure in recovering the allegedly missing Baloch students. IHC Justice Mohsin Akhtar Kayani issued this directive after hearing a petition on implementing the recommendations of the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances. In 2011, the commission was tasked with tracing missing people and holding concerned individuals or organizations accountable. In November 2023, after the Attorney General for Pakistan said 28 of the 50 missing people were not found, the IHC warned of a potential case against Kakar and others. Following this, on 10 January 2024, Kayani said that intelligence officials would face prosecution for cases. Along these lines, on 13 February, he stated: “The punishment of enforced disappearances should be the death penalty.” Kayani claimed that while he was being “generous “by not summing director generals of the Military Intelligence and the Inter-Services Intelligence, he would issue directives for the incoming premier to appear in court. (Umer Burney, “IHC summons PM Kakar on Feb 19 in missing Baloch students case,” Dawn, 13 February 2024)
 
ECONOMY
Improvement in PSX after announcement of plans for coalition government
On 14 February, shares on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) gained over 1,000 points in intraday trade, with the benchmark KSE gaining 1.9 per cent points to go from the previous close at 61,226.92 nothing 62,393.03. Earlier on 13 February, there was volatility on the PSX due to uncertainty on who would form the coalition government. The chief executive of Topline Securities, Mohammed Sohail, told Dawn that the change in trajectory on 14 February was due to “news of a coalition government being set up.” Leaders of six main political parties (IIP, BAP, PML-N, PML-Q, PPP, and MQM) met on 13 February and announced their plan to gorm a coalition in the Centre and provinces with Shehbaz Sharif as the prime ministerial candidate. However, the Director of Next Capital Limited, Shahab Farooq, said that “extreme volatility cannot be ruled out” due to continuing uncertainty given that PTI is also “struggling for the formation of government in the Centre and Punjab.” Another economic analyst advised investors to pursue a “cautious” approach due to the political uncertainty and “unresolved debt issue.” (Mahira Sarfraz, “Shares at PSX gain 1,000 points in intraday trade over clarity on political front,” Dawn, 14 February 2024)

“Now after the formation of the Hung Parliament ( Coalition government ) The Establishment will roll the 18th Amendment back and all the resources will roll back to the federation from the province.” -Hassan Siddiqui “It's disheartening to see allegations of electoral interference in Pakistan's general election. The integrity of the democratic process must be upheld to ensure fair and just representation for all candidates.” - Ehsan Ahmad Khan “Concerned about PTI's passive stance on reclaiming their won seats. People vote for change and trust leaders to safeguard their mandate. It's time for PTI leadership to step up and ensure the integrity of their victories.” -Fida Ullah Khan

“It was a protest vote against political repression and the status quo.” -An opinion in Dawn, “Polls and their aftermath”